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	<title>Comments on: Why Economists&#8217; Predictions are Always Wrong</title>
	<atom:link href="http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/</link>
	<description>Colliding Softly with the World of Ideas</description>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1518</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:22:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1518</guid>
		<description>Gerald Celente , to me , comes across as  having a formulation that has been tested many times to affirm it&#039; accuracy. 
His motto is -todays shaping events forcasts tommorrows trends :

http://www.trendsresearch.com/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gerald Celente , to me , comes across as  having a formulation that has been tested many times to affirm it&#8217; accuracy.<br />
His motto is -todays shaping events forcasts tommorrows trends :</p>
<p><a href="http://www.trendsresearch.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.trendsresearch.com/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Sam Liddicott</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1506</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam Liddicott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2009 11:37:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1506</guid>
		<description>I think many investors were expecting the economic downturn.

I had around 18th months notice of it and wasn&#039;t surprised when it happened.

Of course the principles of preparedness are timeless, but it is not knowledge of these that were my warning, but incidental words from financial investors of a big collapse on it&#039;s way in 2008.

I suppose it is true to say that if you are not paying for good financial advice, there is no-one inclined to give it to you.

and... non-financially inclined individuals may find it hard to tell who is (a) qualified, and
(b) likely, to give them good advice
 - and such individuals are not likely to be able to recognize and act on said advice.

todays financial frameworks are not run for my benefit, thats for sure</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think many investors were expecting the economic downturn.</p>
<p>I had around 18th months notice of it and wasn&#8217;t surprised when it happened.</p>
<p>Of course the principles of preparedness are timeless, but it is not knowledge of these that were my warning, but incidental words from financial investors of a big collapse on it&#8217;s way in 2008.</p>
<p>I suppose it is true to say that if you are not paying for good financial advice, there is no-one inclined to give it to you.</p>
<p>and&#8230; non-financially inclined individuals may find it hard to tell who is (a) qualified, and<br />
(b) likely, to give them good advice<br />
 &#8211; and such individuals are not likely to be able to recognize and act on said advice.</p>
<p>todays financial frameworks are not run for my benefit, thats for sure</p>
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		<title>By: Interest Rate Rises Only a Matter of When? &#124; Money-Rates.com Savings Investor</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1499</link>
		<dc:creator>Interest Rate Rises Only a Matter of When? &#124; Money-Rates.com Savings Investor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:29:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1499</guid>
		<description>[...] Predictions of economic recovery and rising interest rates by economists is not, perhaps, an indication that either will happen on their schedule. Some people even maintain that economists are always wrong. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Predictions of economic recovery and rising interest rates by economists is not, perhaps, an indication that either will happen on their schedule. Some people even maintain that economists are always wrong. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Beverly "SilverBee" Scofield</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1497</link>
		<dc:creator>Beverly "SilverBee" Scofield</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:21:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1497</guid>
		<description>I am not an economist.  Nor am I an academic.  I read everything on the assumption that it somehow makes me a more knowledgeable human being.  Today I though I&#039;d read about economics, and I found this website.  I thank you all for the most enjoyable, informative, helpful comments about economics and economists I&#039;ve ever read.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am not an economist.  Nor am I an academic.  I read everything on the assumption that it somehow makes me a more knowledgeable human being.  Today I though I&#8217;d read about economics, and I found this website.  I thank you all for the most enjoyable, informative, helpful comments about economics and economists I&#8217;ve ever read.</p>
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		<title>By: Perché le previsioni degli economisti sono sempre sbagliate? &#171;</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1490</link>
		<dc:creator>Perché le previsioni degli economisti sono sempre sbagliate? &#171;</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 10:36:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1490</guid>
		<description>[...] Giugno 20, 2009 di rantasipi    A cosa è dovuto il fatto che, ormai da tempi immemori e con un&#8217;imbarazzante regolarità, ogni previsione proveniente dagli economisti mainstream (keynesiani a cui non disdegnano di unirsi, talvolta, i monetaristi à la Chicago Boys, forse troppo sbrigativamente annoverati tra i liberisti) si è rivelata puntualmente sbagliata? Sostanzialmente ad una profonda ignoranza riguardo l&#8217;essere umano, a cui si somma un fatale errore metodologico di cui ci parla Per Bylund in questo articolo. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Giugno 20, 2009 di rantasipi    A cosa è dovuto il fatto che, ormai da tempi immemori e con un&#8217;imbarazzante regolarità, ogni previsione proveniente dagli economisti mainstream (keynesiani a cui non disdegnano di unirsi, talvolta, i monetaristi à la Chicago Boys, forse troppo sbrigativamente annoverati tra i liberisti) si è rivelata puntualmente sbagliata? Sostanzialmente ad una profonda ignoranza riguardo l&#8217;essere umano, a cui si somma un fatale errore metodologico di cui ci parla Per Bylund in questo articolo. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: The Basis for Predictions &#171; Colliding Softly</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1434</link>
		<dc:creator>The Basis for Predictions &#171; Colliding Softly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 15:21:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1434</guid>
		<description>[...] Colliding Softly with the World of Ideas      &#171; Why Economists&#8217; Predictions are Always Wrong [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Colliding Softly with the World of Ideas      &laquo; Why Economists&#8217; Predictions are Always Wrong [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Joe Kelley</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1432</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe Kelley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2009 15:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1432</guid>
		<description>I checked the link, thanks but no thanks, I saw no mention of “insider” knowledge (accurate data processed intelligently) concerning the supply of currency. Without that knowledge, as to how much “new” currency is added to the supply, where that “new” currency went, or how much currency is taken out of circulation, and from where it was taken, the “real” economist is merely reacting to post current transaction data. 

He may be reading better ‘tea leaves’, but the reality of what happens when more currency is added (and added in specific places to specific people) or subtracted (from specific places and specific people) drives the “real” economy – such as it is with its fraudulently criminal nature (driven by fraudulently criminal people). 

I have a very hard time dealing with people who ignore the huge elephant in the room as that elephant stampedes, craps on everyone, urinates on everyone, and uses up all the resources required by everyone on “our” planet earth. Why ignore that beast and why pretend that it doesn’t exist? What is the point? Is the idea: to be a more obedient servant?

I’m curious.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I checked the link, thanks but no thanks, I saw no mention of “insider” knowledge (accurate data processed intelligently) concerning the supply of currency. Without that knowledge, as to how much “new” currency is added to the supply, where that “new” currency went, or how much currency is taken out of circulation, and from where it was taken, the “real” economist is merely reacting to post current transaction data. </p>
<p>He may be reading better ‘tea leaves’, but the reality of what happens when more currency is added (and added in specific places to specific people) or subtracted (from specific places and specific people) drives the “real” economy – such as it is with its fraudulently criminal nature (driven by fraudulently criminal people). </p>
<p>I have a very hard time dealing with people who ignore the huge elephant in the room as that elephant stampedes, craps on everyone, urinates on everyone, and uses up all the resources required by everyone on “our” planet earth. Why ignore that beast and why pretend that it doesn’t exist? What is the point? Is the idea: to be a more obedient servant?</p>
<p>I’m curious.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe Kelley</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1431</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe Kelley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2009 15:25:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1431</guid>
		<description>++++++++
we are in desperate need of real economists
++++++++

Anyone,

I’m used to being censored, left for dead I presume, however, the comments have been publicly solicited; therefore my censored (or ignored) positions will continue, just for the hell of it.

When “we” need something, it seems to me, it is a good idea to know who belongs in this set of people. Suppose, for example, that “we” are the people who wish to stop being victims and “we” wish to take on the roll of being victimizers, supposing that is true, then “we” need a real economist – don’t we?

Yes we do (I can be my own opposition can’t I, according to “we” the individual me?).

Yes “we” do need a real economist, and “we” need one that can employ the “real” economy in such a way as to move more of that power to “us” and from “them”, because that is the “real” economy and that is how the “real” economy works – don’t “we” agree?

Yes we do.

When the real economists speaks to me, if I ever find one, I’m going to ask that real economist to accurately identify real money in a sense where “real” means “really good”, or “really ideal”, or “the best”, or “the most efficient”, or “the most accurate”, or “the most beneficial”, and with the obviously qualifier as to whom is this money the best, the most ideal, etc.

I can look at the link in this data stream to see if that individual offers any accurate data on accurate money since that individual knows “how modern economies actually function”; presumably under the current money monopoly systematic extortion crime - such as it is, currently. 

Thanks for the link?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>++++++++<br />
we are in desperate need of real economists<br />
++++++++</p>
<p>Anyone,</p>
<p>I’m used to being censored, left for dead I presume, however, the comments have been publicly solicited; therefore my censored (or ignored) positions will continue, just for the hell of it.</p>
<p>When “we” need something, it seems to me, it is a good idea to know who belongs in this set of people. Suppose, for example, that “we” are the people who wish to stop being victims and “we” wish to take on the roll of being victimizers, supposing that is true, then “we” need a real economist – don’t we?</p>
<p>Yes we do (I can be my own opposition can’t I, according to “we” the individual me?).</p>
<p>Yes “we” do need a real economist, and “we” need one that can employ the “real” economy in such a way as to move more of that power to “us” and from “them”, because that is the “real” economy and that is how the “real” economy works – don’t “we” agree?</p>
<p>Yes we do.</p>
<p>When the real economists speaks to me, if I ever find one, I’m going to ask that real economist to accurately identify real money in a sense where “real” means “really good”, or “really ideal”, or “the best”, or “the most efficient”, or “the most accurate”, or “the most beneficial”, and with the obviously qualifier as to whom is this money the best, the most ideal, etc.</p>
<p>I can look at the link in this data stream to see if that individual offers any accurate data on accurate money since that individual knows “how modern economies actually function”; presumably under the current money monopoly systematic extortion crime &#8211; such as it is, currently. </p>
<p>Thanks for the link?</p>
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		<title>By: Per Bylund</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1430</link>
		<dc:creator>Per Bylund</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2009 15:53:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1430</guid>
		<description>@Derek Ryan Strong
&lt;blockquote&gt;Of course, Keen rejects neoclassical economics which allows him to see how modern economies actually function.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

That&#039;s exactly my point, the Austrian economists have warned about the crisis for a long time too. But economics is theoretically very centralized and aims for perfect homogeneity - no other views than the present neoclassical dogma allowed. This is why e.g. Obama could repeat that &quot;no economists&quot; questioned his stimulus package whereas most non-mainstream economists were strictly opposed to it. This is also why all you hear in the major outlets of news and economics commentary is the view of Krugman et al - exclusively neoclassical, neo-Keynesian views. 

Your statement on seeing how modern economies &quot;actually function&quot; is well taken; it echoes my point that we do not need most economists but we are in desperate need of real economists (there are very few out there).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Derek Ryan Strong</p>
<blockquote><p>Of course, Keen rejects neoclassical economics which allows him to see how modern economies actually function.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s exactly my point, the Austrian economists have warned about the crisis for a long time too. But economics is theoretically very centralized and aims for perfect homogeneity &#8211; no other views than the present neoclassical dogma allowed. This is why e.g. Obama could repeat that &#8220;no economists&#8221; questioned his stimulus package whereas most non-mainstream economists were strictly opposed to it. This is also why all you hear in the major outlets of news and economics commentary is the view of Krugman et al &#8211; exclusively neoclassical, neo-Keynesian views. </p>
<p>Your statement on seeing how modern economies &#8220;actually function&#8221; is well taken; it echoes my point that we do not need most economists but we are in desperate need of real economists (there are very few out there).</p>
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		<title>By: Derek Ryan Strong</title>
		<link>http://perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-economists-predictions-are-always-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-1429</link>
		<dc:creator>Derek Ryan Strong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2009 15:42:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://perbylund.com/blog/?p=129#comment-1429</guid>
		<description>One economist who has predicted the current economic crisis is Steve Keen. He bases his analysis on Hyman Minsky&#039;s financial instability hypothesis. For more info, see his blog (http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/11/02/debtwatch-no-28-november-2008-what-is-really-going-on/).

Of course, Keen rejects neoclassical economics which allows him to see how modern economies actually function. He is one of a small number of heterodox economists who have done so, but they are growing.

The use of econometrics for making predictions is a big problem. Given that economies are complex adaptive systems, one cannot forecast using econometric models, which uses historical data. People learn and economies change and evolve through time. One cannot extrapolate outside of one&#039;s data set.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One economist who has predicted the current economic crisis is Steve Keen. He bases his analysis on Hyman Minsky&#8217;s financial instability hypothesis. For more info, see his blog (<a href="http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/11/02/debtwatch-no-28-november-2008-what-is-really-going-on/" rel="nofollow">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/11/02/debtwatch-no-28-november-2008-what-is-really-going-on/</a>).</p>
<p>Of course, Keen rejects neoclassical economics which allows him to see how modern economies actually function. He is one of a small number of heterodox economists who have done so, but they are growing.</p>
<p>The use of econometrics for making predictions is a big problem. Given that economies are complex adaptive systems, one cannot forecast using econometric models, which uses historical data. People learn and economies change and evolve through time. One cannot extrapolate outside of one&#8217;s data set.</p>
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