Archive for the ‘Political Economy’ Category

The Savior Complex: Economics Amateurs and Health Care Policy

Sunday, April 13th, 2008

As a Swede, i.e. a native from the country of the greatest (biggest) welfare state in the world in terms of services and expenditure per capita, I am amazed by all the people so consumed by the thought of “free” health care (or free whatever). It is true that these people have some kind of Savior Complex, as I call it – they want to save the world from whatever horrors they identify. The problem with this approach is the attitude that they can save people through forcing a system upon them, and that they actually believe that this coercive system is a solution to the problem.

The latter is interesting, since it seems to apply to almost anybody – and it absolutely applies to most politicians. Having spent ten years as an activist, political leader, and elected to local parliament, I know for sure that politicians are no doubt some of the dumbest people on the planet. They are the true victims of the Savior Complex: they do not only believe they have the ability to save people from themselves and the world, but also that they have the right to use whatever means necessary to accomplish these ends – and they expect gratitude, money, and more power in return.

Ignorance should therefore be a large part of what these people are about.

But politicians aren’t the only people who suffer from the Savior Complex, even though they are the ones most heavily addicted to the feel-good of being do-gooders (at other people’s expense). Most people, I would say, are to some degree victims of or ready to become victims of this complex. The reason I say this is that anyone who is “awarded” a little power, especially in the power rule system we call democracy, pretty much immediately leap into being totally consumed by it.

Let’s have a look at health care policy as an example of this complex, and how it makes people totally ignorant of economics (assuming they knew anything about it to start with). Who is against “free” health care? Most people are not, even though some conservatives talk about it probably being a bit better if private corporations supplied the services rather than an outright government monopoly (they still support “free” health care policies if asked, though).  Why is that?

The reason for nationalizing health care is often a function of both health care services being a “very important” service and the costs being too high for “common people” to afford. Since it is important to everybody – nobody wants to be sick, and we all want as close to eternal life as possible – many conclude it is a “right” to have it: if it isn’t a right, they rightly conclude, everybody wouldn’t get it. So in order to save people from how the world works (meaning, if you can’t somehow pay for it yourself or provide your own health care – somebody else must be forced to pay for it) the obvious conclusion is to make it mandatory for all suppliers to make it available to anyone who “needs” it. (Notice how easily the Marxist term sneaked in to the mainstream vocabulary?)

So there is an obvious political demand for “free” health care services just like there is for promising any other kind of “free stuff” – only health care is by most people considered a lot more important than chocolate bars, cars, or even houses, which means politicians gain a whole lot more offering “free” health care than “free” chocolate bars.

One might wonder what made politicians get all the health care they so eagerly promise people. After all, most people in Congress and the White House don’t own hospitals or are even MDs – so where does the health care come from? As everybody knows, you cannot give people what you don’t have. If you do, then you would commit an act of either fraud (if you deceive the recipient) or theft (if you steal it from someone else to give it to a third person). Politicians have no problem with either of these “qualities” of course and often do both, but they tend to do a lot more of the latter than the former.

So we can safely conclude that politicians, when promising “free” health care, steal it directly from the suppliers or steal money from people to pay for it. In any case they do steal to provide people with what they don’t have. As anyone with just a fraction of economic understanding knows, there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch so someone has to cover the costs somewhere, somehow. In the case of “free” health care, which, by the way, seems to be called “universal” health care nowadays after people got a bit troubled by it suddenly being “free” through some act of political magic, the cost of it ends up with you and me and every other taxpayer. In other words: taxes increase.

This doesn’t seem to be a big deal for some people, since they might argue that they would gladly pay a couple of extra dollars to provide for the poor. That may be the case, but somehow these “friendly” people never got to giving the poor even one cent’s worth of health care prior to it being mandatory. One might wonder if these people are so good if they simply refuse to do it unless forced to.

That obvious contradiction of the do-gooders’ mentality set aside, how many dollars would they, now as tax payers, have to pay to provide health care for the poor? Probably not very much if they would support only vital health care, which is sometimes the case when buying health insurance – the insurance company dedicates part of the premium to supplying health care for those in need. But the problem is that a government program does not easily target certain illnesses – and it certainly doesn’t have a restricted budget (after all, if the money available isn’t enough they just go get more). Also, government is not an actor with a clear and controlled purpose (which is usually the case for a company) – so government is victim of both fuzzy, incomprehensible goals and a huge principal-agent problem (people acting on behalf of government aren’t controlled or controllable, and they have no incentives at all to act morally as agents of government – they act in their interest instead).

How often haven’t I heard physicians in Sweden claim “we might as well do this too, since you are here” while adding “there’s no cost to you, of course, since we have free health care”? All too often, and hardly anyone would say no to further tests or treatments even though they aren’t necessary or even recommended. Had it been at your own expense you would probably first have asked about the cost, and then considered if it is “worth it.” If it is free, then go for it!

This is the rational way to think about it, so I blame no one for accepting “extra” treatment. The people paying for it are unknown to you and you will never meet them or be held responsible – and since you dutifully pay your taxes you have the “right” to get “your share.” So people tend to consume more. Sounds familiar? If you pass someone handing out free stuff, would you then get more than if you would have to pay for it?

I’ve conducted a couple of experiments of this myself, while I was in politics. In a local high school we tried to “sell” our ideas through handing out stuff with our party’s logo etc. When we offered free stuff, even if they were only bumper stickers, everything would be gone within seconds – people eagerly grabbed tens if not hundreds of stickers even if they didn’t at all sympathize with the party.

Stickers are expensive, so we tried to limit it to “one free sticker per person.” This worked in the sense that all the stickers weren’t gone in seconds – it took minutes. At one time we tried limiting this very costly campaigning strategy through offering all stuff – stickers, socks, coffee mugs, and even t-shirts – at a very limited cost. We set the price at around $0.10 per item. After a whole day’s campaigning we would go home still having almost all the stuff we brought! Nobody wanted these things (and I don’t blame them) since they had to pay – even though it was only $0.10!

I admit that this political merchandise is totally worthless to people – who wants a pair of socks with a political logo? A t-shirt with an enormous party logo? Unless you are an active member it has literally no value (maybe negative).

Now apply the logic of the worthless political stuff to the “very important” health care. Of course, the demand for health care would sky-rocket to levels never anticipated by even the most pessimistic politician. And the costs would follow. The normal government reaction to this is to make sure to limit the cost for the program (they never ever consider abolishing a program that voters may “like”), often through setting a ceiling to how much certain treatments may cost. So they hire an army of bureaucrats to calculate the “true” market price (this isn’t doable, but government does it all the time) and how much it “may” cost – and then they limit the amount government pays for the certain treatment.

This is what the Medicaid is all about. Government says a kidney transplant is worth $X and therefore pays that much. In theory (if we for the moment pretend to be very ignorant) this should limit the costs. The problem is that bureaucrats have no idea – and some of them probably cannot even spell to “transplant.” So they have to ask the suppliers how much it would be. The first estimate may be fairly accurate, but as time goes by people learn that the government bureaucrats – in order to avoid being scammed by suppliers of health care services – set the ceilings at only part of what they claim the real costs is. So they have an incentive to push prices upward in order to cover costs and – possibly – make a profit. If bureaucrats calculate ceiling prices to 90 % of reported costs, the reported costs will be at least 110 % of the real costs. Also, they will charge private customers less than they charge the government, since private customers (and insurance companies) cannot afford to pay much whereas government has no clue – and will only reach deeper into people’s pocket books if they run out of money (or print more of it).

When the bureaucrats understand this (which could, admittedly, take some time) they retaliate: they say they will only pay the real price, not the charged price. So they will require health care providers to either report all their transactions to the newly established authority for health care services market price estimations or offer only fixed prices. The latter might not sound like a bad idea, but the fact is that health care providers often would charge poor customers less than rich customers for the same purposes that insurance companies give free health care to poor – charity because it increases the firm’s market value and creates a competitive advantage.

Also, health insurance companies would have discounts for promising certain volumes to the health care providers. The “fixed price” demanded by government bureaucrats now pushes average prices up, since any offered discounts mean less money from the authorities for delivered services. This hurts, of course, people who are poor or have health insurances.

The effect of this is that poor people who somehow aren’t covered by the rigid government program no longer stand a chance – they cannot get health care at all unless they find someone who can pay the overprice on their behalf. Also, insurance premiums go up, since there are no longer any discounts available and prices tend to move quickly upward to cover possible cost increases. A fixed price needs to cover the risk of increased costs in a way variable prices do not – in the latter case, if costs go up prices will too (and the same if costs go down) while in the former case government will only allow for price increases under certain circumstances and at certain times. So prices are continually adjusted upwards.

So the effect of this “excellent” government program is sky-rocketing demand and prices rapidly increasing.

Politicians are of course totally surprised by this result – they thought they would do good and provide “free” health care for everybody at the costs when the program was established and with the demand at that same time. Now they learn that demand and prices are increasing so rapidly that the program always runs out of money – and this makes people real angry when government isn’t able to give them what they promised. So they add more money to the program budget and perhaps more restrictions, again causing higher prices.

Another common measure is to include more people in the program, since a lot of people suddenly cannot afford the health care they once were able to get for their hard-earned money. So the program is enlarged to cover everybody in “need,” which of course creates the same kind of problems again – only to a much greater degree. (But it is too optimistic to conclude politicians understand this; they won’t.)

It is at this time the people suffering from the Savior Complex once again step forward and sees opportunity. They offer new and far more extensive programs to make sure people get health care even though they can’t afford it – they high prices are publicly condemned as results of “corporate greed” or perhaps described as a “market failure.” The new program, perhaps a “nobody left behind” or “universal” program to finally solve the problem, is a great way to get elected. After all, most people don’t have the economic understanding nor the insight in the horrendous government systems to figure out what is going on.

This is one of those excellent games that would go on even if politicians were wise enough to understand what is going on (and they’re not). After all, everybody loses while the politicians win – they get more power, bigger government, and more friends get to be hired in another fancy government authority. This would give them enough incentive to act against the public interest, which is of course what they always do.

But what if they would for some reason understand the effects of their program? They would still go through with it, even if they would find the effects somewhat unfair. The reason? Simply to satisfy their egos. They are, after all, victims of the Savior Complex. They are addicts to being seen as do-gooders; they want appreciation – they want to look like they do something. That makes them dream sweet dreams every night. While you and I pay the terrible and enormous costs of these self-absorved petty good-for-nothings.

For more on the Swedish welfare state, please see How the Welfare State Corrupted Sweden. For articles where I briefly discuss the Savior Complex (or Messiah Complex, which I used to call it), please see Saving the World Through Saving Yourself and A Strategy for Forcing the State Back.

Are All Capitalists Communists?

Sunday, March 23rd, 2008

I have followed the discussion on the Federal Reserve lately, not only how it is meddling with the currency and thereby trying to push the market in one direction or another. My interest has been mainly in the arguments for and against “the Fed,” i.e. reasons it exists and results of its existence (and meddling).

The proponents of a central bank claim there is a general need for a centralized power to create stability in the market and counteract the boom and bust cycles that we’re experiencing. The proponents of a market freed from a central bank claim the exact opposite: that the Fed through its meddling with the currency and interest rates create the boom and bust cycles. So how are we to find out which of these parties has got this right and which is utterly confused?

One way is to think about it for a minute or two. It isn’t too hard to realize what underlying philosophies make people take these two positions. In the former case, the market itself is unstable and needs to be corrected. So it is saying that there is some kind of friction or instability in the market that it cannot sort out itself, and therefore we need political instruments to take care of it. Sounds like a reasonable conclusion given that the premises are correct.

So let’s have a look at the premises. Why does the market fluctuate in big wave-like motions up and down, in which everybody frantically collectively buy everything or sell everything? Marx claimed it was the underlying contradiction in capitalism that caused these booms and busts. Because of oppression and the ongoing class conflict between the propertied and unpropertied (proletarian) classes there is tension, and the exploitation of labor workers makes capitalists literally go “wild,” which in turn makes the market unstable. (This is a very simplified version of Marxian business cycle theory, of course.)

What these booms and busts really mean is that people tend to act “like one” and therefore when someone starts buying everybody starts buying – and when someone starts selling everybody starts selling. This might seem intuitive, but since we know everybody in the market is trying to make a profit this simply cannot be the case. There are panics, of course, when the market is already going up or down very rapidly. When you realize something strange is going on and that you are about to lose all your money, you might panic. But that still doesn’t explain why the market goes down before people panic.

Let’s think about it, when the market is going up at a modest rate, why in the world would a lot of people suddenly sell all they have and leave the market? If the market is going up we would of course have some people selling to realize their profits, but there is no reason to not invest more or stay in the market with some investments when it is going up. It simply doesn’t make sense for everybody to collectively sell everything they have and put the money in a bank account instead of taking advantage of the economic growth.

The same thing is true for the opposite situation. In a market with falling indexes there is no reason for everybody to collectively and suddenly start buying and thereby change the direction of how the market develops. If people really did collectively make a decision – wouldn’t we know of it? Wouldn’t we have a huge information problem to solve first? And if everybody follows a leader, wouldn’t we know who that leader is? Wouldn’t we be able to identify him or her? (After all, we are parts of the market.)

No one working in the financial markets will tell you they are but sheep following a leader or that they are acting collectively on some kind of invisible command. They might tell you that they could panic in certain situations and at that time act like sheep or follow someone’s lead. But then we’re back at the same problem again: the panic doesn’t arise out of thin air, it is caused by something – and it is usually caused by drastic change in the markets. Now, if everybody is acting on drastic change – where the hell does the change come from? “The market,” after all, is but an abstraction of all the people and transactions out there – drastic change cannot happen in the market before people act [on it], because such a change is the result of their actions.

This cause of the problem is what Marx tried to explain with the “inherent contradiction” in capitalism, even though I don’t think he did a very good job (at least not if this theory is applied to the concept of the market in general). However, most people working in the financial markets have adopted this Marxian view of what they are doing. This is evident from how they view the Federal Reserve: most financial analysts claim, and they do so sincerely, that the Fed is necessary to counteract the booms and busts. So they seem to believe that they aren’t able to trade with each other using reason and acting upon it – they can only act collectively and irrationally, and therefore they are doomed to create these booms and busts.

I doubt anyone working in and with the markets would choose to tell you they are all brainless drones acting collectively without ever thinking of what they are doing. On the contrary, many of them spend most of their time analyzing facts trying to make as fact-based and rational decisions as possible.

Now, even if Marx was wrong – this is surely a contradiction. These people claim there is a need for a centralized power counteracting the effects of their collective and irrational actions in the market place whereas they also claim to invest based on as thorough rational analysis as is possible given the ever existing constraints in supply of time and money. We can only conclude these people are wrong in one of these claims: either they are just trying to cover up their “sheepness” through faking analysis, or they are not normally acting like sheep.

The proponents of a market free from the Fed and its meddling with the currency and interest rates claim there are no natural boom and bust cycles in the market. People do panic when the market suddenly and drastically changes, but these sudden and drastic changes are in turn caused by over- and underinvestment triggered by attempts to artificially make capital cheaper and more expensive through meddling with currency and interest rates. What they are saying (and my use of the word “meddling” should give me a way as one of them) is that the boom and bust cycles were originally caused by the central bank trying to politically increase (politicians hardly ever want to decrease) growth through artificial measures.

They lowered interest rates (the price of capital) to spur investment or printed more money in order to “invest” in wars or welfare systems and other benefits to get re-elected. What would such a shock to the market system result in? The obvious answer is that when the price of capital suddenly and somewhat drastically goes down a lot of business people act on this incentive – they get their hands to this money and make investments they otherwise wouldn’t make. Why wouldn’t they make these investments otherwise? Because they make the investments they can afford, and they choose the ones they believe are most profitable – when the price of capital is artificially lowered they can suddenly afford the more risky and less “safe” investments and do so in order to maximize profits.

You can’t really blame people acting in their own interest and acting as they have always act. The reason they make these extra risky investments is because someone lowered interest rates to a level the market itself doesn’t consider reasonable.

The extra investments cause a boom, of course, since investments increase dramatically. And the extra investments, since they are riskier, tend to be bad investments much more often than the investments that were made with capital at market price. It is also important to realize that this “stimulation” of the market usually is a one-time thing – the state does not have any reason to always keep interest rates low (which is very costly – for everybody), they only do this as a way to win the election.

So what happens when the investments start failing (and a lot of them will)? The market is pushed downward at a rate not possible were it not for the artificially cheap investment capital that a lot of people took advantage of. After having spent all money available on investments people tend to underinvest – they have already invested as much as they dare (even considering the cheaper capital). So they start to cut back, especially when they realize some of the extra investments were in fact not very good. So we have a recoil to the artificial boom – a bust.

How does the state, through the Fed, react to these cycles? Just like they react right now: “oh my god, there is a lot of bad investments out there, a recession is coming – we need to lower interest rates to get the market going again.” Well, this might work a couple of times – but it creates but another boom before another bust, and each time the Fed needs to use more drastic measures (i.e., lower the interest rate more or print even more money) to really change things.

Anybody see an evil circle? Anybody see who’s the culprit? Yep, the Fed.

So we have these two positions, and they both are available in a number of different versions, that either the Fed helps a market that cannot take care of itself or it causes the problems it claims to fix.

One can only ask: how come anyone survived before the Fed was founded in 1913? The history books should be brimful with depressions much worse than the one starting in 1929. After all, in 1929 we had the Fed to save us.

The War and International Tax Payers

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

I have been following the discussions on the economy lately, especially the discussions on the larger TV networks such as CNN. What is striking about the commentary and “analysis” is the total lack of understanding (or should I say ignorance?) for what is going on. Most analysts and experts seem to blame recession for the weakening dollar and inflation in prices, as were it some kind of natural market flaw.

We’re told recession is something that “just happens” in the market; something that we cannot get around and that we cannot really understand. They don’t say the wave-like ups and downs in the market are results of what Marx called inherent conflicts in capitalism, but they sure seem to mean exactly that. The experts don’t know why, but the market seems to go up and down in periods – in general boom and bust cycles.

As gold hits and passes $1,000 per ounce, and oil reaches beyond $110 per barrel, we are destined to see a weakening dollar as a result of the overall recession. The fact that the Fed is frequently pushing out more dollars in the international market system, sometimes as loans and sometimes as alms, to cover the massive costs for the ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan, is something that isn’t mentioned at all.

Where does all this money come from? If the Fed decides to offer another loan to the market or hand out treasury bonds, where is the reserve of value from which this money is taken? The sad truth is that there is none, which means any such action by the Fed is adding more of the fiat currency to the market without any kind of value backing.

But judging from the “experts” on TV, I guess the number of dollars “out there” has no effect on the value of the currency. Prices of any goods that have heavily increased supply go down – that is something any economist knows for sure. But this reasoning seems to not affect money. After all, money is money and has nothing to do with other things people trade with?

The falling dollar has in only seven months cost me more than 10% of the value of my annual salary as a Graduate Research Assistant at the University of Missouri measured in my “home currency” Swedish Kronas (see August 15 vs. March 14). This is not because the Krona is unbelievably strong; on the contrary, the Krona is – like any other fiat currency – inflated, but it is so at a much lower rate than the American dollar.

How much has the dollar fallen? (Or, in more correct language: how much poorer have Americans become “thanks” to their politicians?) Let’s have a look at the exchange rate five years ago, on March 14, 2003, about the time when the war began. The dollar has fallen almost 29 % since then as compared to that small, insignificant country‘s fiat currency.

Theoretically, this should mean American products are a helluvalot cheaper now than five years ago, which should be good for exports and for countries importing American goods. So the problem of the dollar shouldn’t be anybody else’s problem.

Even considering that the dollar is a “world currency” (whatever that means), and that a lot of companies and corporations have signed contracts in dollars, shouldn’t affect e.g. European countries too much. At least not in the long term – such losses are nothing but temporary and should therefore be covered by temporary measures or productivity increases.

The reason the world is so closely following what is happening with the dollar exchange rate (but no one is of course asking why this is happening) is that the international system of trade is 100 % political. It is managed by political organizations that enforce political rule; it is traded through political channels with political favors and with politically controlled currencies; and the corporations acting in the system are almost without exception heavily subsidized by “its” country’s political government.

This is the reason politicians around the world are now aiming to collectively save the dollar (link in Swedish). The natural thing to do in a time of crises would of course be to take whatever measures to strengthen one’s own nest, to make sure the “home market” is strong enough to survive a dollar crisis. Which can only be done through massive deregulation and depoliticization of the market (broadly defined). This is, of course, not in the interest of politicians and political power – even though it is definitely in the interest of people and firms everywhere.

Instead of taking advantage of the situation, politicians around the world get together to do what they do best: make things even worse. The dollar is to be saved only so that status quo is unaffected by the problems caused by political meddling with the economy – and this can only be achieved through intervention in support of the dollar.

What we are about to see is therefore a collective effort by politicians worldwide to make their central banks spend enormous amounts of tax payers’ money to buy paper dollars so that the supply in the market is limited (or decreased), which will make the dollar regain some of the illusion of value. This may seem like another one of politicians’ stupid ideas to try to do something about something they are utterly ignorant about.

But let me assure you it is worse than that.

The reason the dollar is crashing is because there is a war going on in Iraq and Afghanistan (and there might soon be another one in Iran). Wars are costly and they certainly cannot be financed through regular taxation – the Iraq war will cost as much as the U.S. federal income tax for two full years according to Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. It is obvious that such costs cannot fit in the budget; it is also impossible to “temporarily” raise taxes to cover for such costs.

In other words, costs have to be covered in other ways than direct taxation. When a thief cannot steal enough to cover his costs, what does he do? He starts another lucrative business: counterfeiting. The Fed is literally pumping billions of dollars into the market to cover the costs of the war, which causes the dollar to fall. And then politicians all over the world take tax payers’ hard earned money to “rescue” the dollar from collapse.

So when people work hard in Europe and Japan to make a living, their politicians are taking their money and literally sending them to Washington D.C. to be spent on killing more people in Iraq.

What a wonderful world.

Update: The Financial Times is now writing on how non-American central banks will bail out the United States financial problems. They don’t mention what it means, of course, but they report on what is about to happen.