Per Bylund

[ad]The general conclusion at the moment seems to be that there is a need for a new set of theories of the market and economics – “crisis economics.” The reason for this need is the fact that “no one” predicted the current downturn and crisis, and that the predictions made turned out as wrong as they could possibly be. In fact, many economists predicted increased growth and continued prosperity while the true future held an economy in freefall with a number of imploding industries and sectors. 

In an opinion piece in the National Post the obvious question is asked: Why Do We Have Economists? The question had to be asked, especially since there has been no real “blame game,” no real and public debate on why all predictions turned out wrong, and no consequences for the economics profession. After all, economists often stress the fact that action is taken under rational assumptions of consequences and that all actions have consequences of some form. The army predicting economists is obviously an exception to that rule.

As some sociology professors frequently joking: say what you will about economists, but you will always get a straight and precise answer – and you always know that it is wrong. So the question asked by the editor of the National Post should be well taken; it is an important one. Why do we have economists?

But there is a question that is more important, especially for the professional economists who make all these “always wrong” predictions, and that is what makes the predictions always turn out wrong? The answer to this question lies in the error of Milton Friedman in his now famous (should-be infamous) article “The Methodology of Positive Economics” and the people who followed him (and still do).

Economics prides itself of being a deductive science, i.e. that new knowledge is deduced directly and logically from true premises or assumptions. Friedman argued that it doesn’t matter if the assumptions are wrong as long as one can extract general rules from which one can make predictions that are somewhat reliable and come close to the truth. What he spelled out was a theory of economics aiming to be a natural science, where exactness is both important and possible. In economics, however, we should learn that exactness is neither important nor possible.

In order to provide a positive, rigorous science that can produce exact predictions, one has to through out all understanding (in the Weberian verstehen-sense) and rely solely on cold data. One cannot make predictions unless that which is studied is perfectly observable and with clear boundaries. But what if we apply this line of thinking on human action, which is the core of what is studied in economics. Are the causes, nature, and consequences of human action perfectly observable and have clear boundaries? How do we measure the causes of an individual’s actions? His choice of action? The action itself? Its consequences?

The latter comes closer than the former, but it is still not even close to having the properties of the objects studied in the natural sciences. Mixing x grams of A with y grams of B may always create the substance C, and exposing D to E or F may always show exactly z – but doing m to one individual does not necessarily create the same effect as doing m to another. People are not simply responding perfectly and blindly to exogenous influences, there is a whole lot of other things going on that are at least as important as certain influences. Some call it “free will,” but you don’t have to go as far into metaphysical or religious pondering to realize that people are neither rocks nor [simpler] animals.

The problem of economic prediction is just that underlying assumption that we can “easily” predict the outcome of numerous people through meddling with some of the variables that affect people’s choices. It is simply not the case that different individuals choose to act the same way when exposed to (or influenced by) the same stimuli. Our bodies may – may – react in the same way, but our minds do not. 

To this some might retort: thanks to the law of large numbers we can generalize our conclusions despite individuals not being alike. When the law of large numbers is applicable, we can simply assume that if we just have a sample large enough all potentially skewed or unrepresentative data will even out and we will find The Truth about human beings. But this does not change the problem at hand – we are still generalizing in the same way, but only with more data and more individuals. 

Even if we accept the law of large numbers as a sufficient reason to use statistics to understand people, we will have to face the problem with their not being the same. That people, being boundedly rational, would always choose more over less (which necessarily follows from the definition of choice) does not mean they will choose a particular outcome over another in every situation. Each individual will make a subjective assessment of his preferences and rank them, then make a choice based on what he knows of his ranked preferences (this is the decision process, whether it is carried out consciously and reflectingly or not). But the ranking may change depending on circumstances as well as what the individual has learned.

Making perfect predictions the way Friedman proposed means we must take the quality of being human out of every individual, or at least “even it out” in order to calculate precise predictions. What do we learn by knowing that people without personalities and without “inner depth” (some call it soul) would necessarily act according to our the predictions? Probably not much.

Furthermore, the predictions are based on extrapolating well beyond what is reasonable. Establishing one person’ s assessment of everyday risk and the costs he accepts to take care to avoid this risk, and translating it into dollar amounts, does not necessarily give us monotonous knowledge of this individuals preferred choices. It does not follow that he would accept a high risk to lose his life if he was paid some muliple of the cost he was willing to take on for smaller risks.

Predictions simply do not cut it. So why do we have economists?

The answer to this question is that we do not need most economists, but we do, at the same time, need economists more than ever. The reason for this is that the economists working on predicting the exact outcome of hundreds or thousands (or millions or billions) of individuals’ simultaneous choices are worthless, their methodology is fundamentally flawed and they are nothing but frauds. And they should be treated accordingly.

While we think of what to do with the predicting economists we need to find the real economists, the people who understand the market and can tell us how it functions and what is required for it to function well. Very few economists understand what the market is about and how the emergent order arises, subsists, and what it effectuates. These economists were able to say a long time ago that we were heading towards a meltdown, and they did. They even published these warnings, but nobody listened or wanted to hear about it. “Nobody” here denotes the prediconomists and the political elite that [usually] hire them. 

Economists need to do what businesses did a long time ago: go back to basics. There is no need for armies of economists trying to predict the exact results of public policy, of interest rate changes, or monetary policy, etc. The use of prediconomists is not to learn about the future or politics, but as “useful idiots” disguising blind, naive, and ignorant attempts to regulate people’s choices through granting the commandeering of society an air of scientificity. And they serve well as scapegoats when their predictions turn out to be wrong and the people in charge can hide behind their “good intentions.”

What there is a need for is real economists who do not engage in futile attempts to “scientifically” make exact predictions of people’s future choices. We need people to tell us how the market works so that we can reap the full fruits of our hard work and profit from the risks we take.

[ad]This is a legitimate question even though it doesn’t necessarily imply that economists (American such, at least) in general are Republicans. But it is a fact that economists in general tend to be to the “right” (according to the common understanding of the political right) of e.g. sociologists and political scientists. It is also a fact that you will find more libertarians in this discipline than in virtually any other such in academia. Why is this so?

The general leftist might not find this question troubling, since the “obvious” answer is that economists work with money and capital and therefore have a natural and benefiting relationship with capital owners in our capitalist economy. This may be an answer that explains some individuals’ actions and convictions, but it is hardly the reason economists in general – theoretically or in reality – tend to have free market ideals. But it may be an easy way of avoiding over-simplifying and over-politicizing the issue.

Some may argue the other side of the simplified leftist coin: that there is a “selection bias” and therefore that people who like money and capital(ism) are more likely to choose to work with and study money and capital. This too may explain why some of the individuals in economics feel they belong on the right. But it doesn’t explain why virtually a whole discipline identify with the “right” side of the political spectrum.

The real answer should be based in simple economic theory: the theory of incentives, or, rather, the assumption that people do what they have an incentive to do. This is a core understanding in economics of the true nature of human action. People do what they have an incentive to do, and understanding this may lead the individual economist researcher to the solution to many a problem. Understanding that people do what they have an incentive to do explains virtually any social standards or institutions.

What this means here is that economists think this way and therefore necessarily think this way also with respect to politics and the organization of government. Seeing that individuals in government are acting on their incentives means seeing all the possible problems with government. For instance, take any democratically elected parliament taking the proposed budget to a vote. If the members of parliament would pay whatever is spent themselves they would have a great incentive of minimize the budget, make sure that it is spent and distributed efficiently, that only projects with great chances of success and with real benefits would see the light of day. But this is not the case; politicians choose what to spend other people’s money on.

Imagine what this screwed up set of incentives would mean in another setting, e.g. a common grocery store. We know that the owner or manager of the store makes sure to hire those he can trust to sell (and not steal) the groceries and he will only buy those groceries he knows people will buy. Why? Because his ass is on the line – if he spends most of the budget on groceries nobody wants he will lose customers and therefore his own money…and perhaps the whole store. 

Now imagine the same situation but where the owner or manager can decide how much money he gets to spend through simply taking other people’s money. Whoever lives in the area has to pay whatever percentage of his income to the owner of the grocery store so that the grocerer can buy goods to offer his customers. Now what are the incentives for him to buy only good products, only products people will like, and hire people he can trust? It makes more sense to buy the cheapest groceries, no matter if people like them, and hire the people he likes or people he feels sorry for or people he wants to do a favor. 

It is not necessary to ask which grocery store will be of greater utility for the customer, even if some of the groceries in the “political” grocery store are for free. 

This is how any political parliament works: politicians claim they are limited by their budgets, but they get to decide the size of the budget (and take the money necessary) and even if they should stay within the budget. It is often the case that they spend way more than they take from people, thereby not only spending people’s earned incomes but also the money they will earn in the future. So any political organization is, in terms of incentives, totaly screwed up. Or, to translate it into economic lingo, the incentives between the principal (voter) and agents (politicians) are misaligned.

So it makes sense for economists to identify with whatever politician that seems to understand more (read: seems to be less ignorant) about these things. And these people, at least rhetorically, are often found in the political right. I say rhetorically, since it is pretty obvious to whoever understands politics that in the choice between Bush and Obama neither one understands the first thing about economics. But Bush was able to make it sound like he had a fraction of a clue. 

The interesting point is not really that economists identify with the political right, but rather why they do not follow their theoretical understanding all the way through and demolish the State – at least in their thinking. Some of them clearly do (I am one), but not very many. 

So what we have here is really a whole academic discipline that understands, or supposedly understands, economics and therefore can identify the lack of aligned incentives in political organization – but don’t do so all the way. Economists either do not fully believe economic theory or they do not believe government is what it is (and claims to be). Which is it?

Some clearly do not understand and do not wish to understand economic theory nor apply it on other things than their precious formulas and functions. Such economists will never find any truth and will not produce anything of value to anyone. But what about the rest? It is clear that many economists live in symbiosis with the State and therefore do not wish to think about it in less positive terms. After all, the government employs a lot of economists and economists find it very prestigeous to work for the people with political power. So they simply neglect to apply their economic understanding on the organization they wish to serve.

So how about the rest, i.e. economists who do understand economic theory and wo do not find it necessary to lie to themselves in what regards the State? The answer to this question is what is very sad. It should be the case that economists who end up identifying with the political “right” while supporting government simply do so because they are as brainwashed as most people. Despite being scholars in economics they have learned throughout their lifetimes that there is no way to survive without government.

Economists (many of them) may not like government, but they accept it and even support it. And they use their sound theories to make government more efficient and effective – simply because they have been taught that there is no other way. To a free-thinking individual with economic understanding this is of course the same as saying that a certain industry “must” function like the “statist” grocery store mentioned above – but that we need to make its wasteful operations as efficient and effective as possible not to get “too much waste.”

Anyone understanding the competitive market understands that waste is not acceptable, that waste is minimized automatically through the profit motive and the pressure from competition. The problem here is not only that government is a monopoly and that the profit motive is nonexistent. The problem is also that it is an organization that can “legitimately” force its customers (and non-customers) to pay for its costs while it can supply whatever it wishes at whatever cost it finds most appropriate. 

Government, in other words, is an organization that is much much worse than any monopoly mentioned in economic theory – it is a monopoly cubed, judging from the weird incentives it creates and the effect it has on the market. There is therefore no way of understanding economists’ support for government other than that they have given up in the sense not applying what they know to it. Brainwashing works, even on those who have dedicated your whole professional lives to learning the truth – and when the truth speaks out clearly against government.